What should investors expect with the stock market in 2022? – The Average Joe
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    What should investors expect with the stock market in 2022?


    November 11, 2021

    market forecast

    Biden is entering the second year of his presidential term — and here’s why that’s a bad sign for the market.

    Stocks tend to underperform their long-term averages in the second year of the US president’s term — according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence (via WSJ).

    One speculation is that presidents try to enact less market-friendly policies — well ahead of the midway elections.

    WSJ also gives 5 reasons why the market could be weaker in 2022:

    1. COVID relief is coming to an end with the Fed recently announcing the start of tapering — reducing monthly bond purchases.
    2. Monetary policies — which influences the direction of the markets — won’t be as easy going as it was in 2021 with interest rates expected to rise.
    3. Corporate earnings are likely to slow in 2022 from the negative impacts of inflation, and high-demand post-COVID could lose steam.
    4. Market valuations are at record highs with the CAPE ratio trading at its highest level since 2000.
    5. The S&P 500 is up 26% this year — much higher than its long-term average of 10-11% — which could set the market up for a weaker year.

    What are experts saying? Stock selection could be harder in 2022 with corrections potentially coming.

    • Expect rising costs among companies with varying impacts on sectors and companies — making stock selection a challenge — according to the chief equity investment officer of Eaton Vance Management.
    • During the good times, investors overlook high valuations. But when the market gets riskier, investors could decide which stocks are overvalued — leading to corrections — according to Timothy Murray, market strategist at T. Rowe Price.

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