To The Moon? Bitcoin Sets Its Sights For Mars After The Launch of The Spot Bitcoin ETF – The Average Joe

    To The Moon? Bitcoin Sets Its Sights For Mars After The Launch of The Spot Bitcoin ETF

    Victor Lei — Head of Research

    January 11, 2024

    January 11, 2024

    It only took 11 years of paperwork and rejections, plus one silly security hiccup, but the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally delivered what Bitcoin fans have been anxiously waiting for: the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the US. The impact was immediate, with $BTC surging over 87% since Sept. 2023, putting it just 32% away from its all-time high and ending the long crypto winter.

    Welcome to the big leagues: The approval prompted a swift response from investors who rushed to put crypto in their brokerage accounts, IRAs, and 401(k)s. Within 24 hours of Wednesday’s approval, trading volume surpassed $5B — briefly pushing $BTC above $48K.

    • Grayscale, which fought a regulatory battle to convert its $27B Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, became the first to launch.
    • Major players followed, including BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest — sparking a fee war, with management fees dropping as low as 0.2%.

    The approval is expected to make Bitcoin more accessible (for better or worse) — while opening it up to another significant source of capital. According to a Bitwise/VettaFi survey, 88% of advisors were holding off on bitcoin investments until the introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs — and 98% plan to either maintain or increase their crypto exposure.

    Just how much money will flood into Bitcoin?

    Bernstein analysts project Bitcoin ETFs to hold between $70-80B in assets by the end of their first year. Ric Edelman, founder of one of America’s largest RIAs, foresees $150B flowing in over the next 2-3 years, citing research indicating that “77% of independent advisors plan to allocate an average of 2.5% of clients’ portfolios to spot bitcoin ETFs.” That’s a lot of money, and if spot bitcoin ETFs aren’t enough to send $BTC back to all-time highs, perhaps this event could help…

    • In approximately 95 days, Bitcoin will experience its fourth-ever Halving, cutting the number of new Bitcoin entering circulation in half.
    • In each of the past three halvings, $BTC soared the year before and after — rising 559% the year following the 2020 halving.

    Will the trifecta of spot bitcoin ETFs, declining interest rates, and the impending Halving event be enough to take prices to Mars? Depends on who you ask. Cathie Wood expects $BTC to hit $1.5M (a 30x increase) by 2030 — but ask a skeptic, and their answer could easily be zero.

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