Oil markets in limbo after massive spike

Oil prices have fallen over 20% in the past week after a massive spike that briefly brought it above $130.

What’s the big deal? Cease-fire negotiations and COVID lockdowns in China put a lid on rising oil prices — but oil markets are still in crisis mode with two big uncertainties: How will the war play out and when will oil demand peak?

Per Robert Armstrong of FT, large US oil stocks do look very cheap based on valuations and sales growth — outlining several bull cases:

• Oil can be used to protect against inflation.
• Oil companies are in all value indices — while transitions towards value investments continue.
• Additional Ukraine impacts could tighten up oil supply — potentially pushing prices up.

But energy investments also have their risks. Per managing partner at Winhall Risk Analytics, if the war ends — “commodities are going to drop like a rock” (via Institutional Investor).

Energy outlook: On Monday, BP — the major oil & gas company — released their annual energy outlook report exploring the energy transition with many insights:

• Peak oil demand delayed: BP warned oil would peak early 2020 — but sees oil demand steadying to 2030 — before falling.
• More capital required for renewables: Between 2015-2019, oil & gas investments doubled wind and solar — which needs to reverse.

Unintended consequences: Uber (NYSE:UBER) is adding a fuel surcharge of an additional $0.35-0.45 per trip/delivery for at least two months.

• Per a survey by The Rideshare Guy, 15% of drivers quit from high gas prices and 38% are driving less.
• Rising energy prices are raising electricity bills by 20% or more.

Do you want oil prices to go up? That depends which side of the trade you’re on. Strong earnings and consumer spending is one of the few things holding up the economy — and rising energy prices could erode consumer purchasing power.