What can investors expect from the S&P 500 in 2023? – The Average Joe

    What can investors expect from the S&P 500 in 2023?

    Victor Lei — Head of Research

    January 3, 2023

    January 3, 2023

    If you had only invested in the S&P 500 at the start of 2022, you would have lost nearly a fifth of your portfolio.

    To break even, the S&P 500 would need to rise 24% this year (assuming no portfolio changes).

    History says 24% is tough, but 15% is more achievable. Why? Let’s take a look at this chart of the S&P 500’s returns by year (via Carson Group):

    Some takeaways:

    Back-to-back down years are rare. The previous incidents were during the 1973/1974 and 2000s dot-com crash — two (seriously) rough patches in history.

    Positive years tend to follow negative years. After a negative year, the S&P 500 gained 15% on average — and finished positive 80% of the time.

    Never say, “the S&P 500 can’t rise 24% in a single year,” – but also never say, “the S&P 500 won’t finish down two years in a row.”

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