The One Factor That Will Make Or Break Tesla’s Future

Tesla is the undisputed king of charging: With three times more fast chargers than the next-largest US charging operator — and accounting for 71% of all ultra-fast charging installations in 2022.

It’s also been one of their biggest competitive advantages. Want access to the world’s largest (and one of the fastest) charging networks? You’ll need a Tesla.

Last November, they renamed the network to the North American Charging Standard — and opened it up to other carmakers for the first time.

• Electric truckmaker Rivian is the latest company to join Tesla’s supercharger network — following Ford and General Motors, who have already made the switch.
• Over 60% of the US EV market will have access to Tesla’s charging stations — which could continue rising as other carmakers, including Hyundai, consider joining.

The upside: Analysts expect a $3B boost (under 4% of its 2022 revenue) to Tesla’s revenue by 2030. Tesla also qualifies for $7.5B in subsidies from Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

The downside: Stations could get too busy, or opening up exclusive access to the best charging network could provide less incentive to buy a Tesla.

But the future of Tesla depends on one thing…

RBC’s Capital Analyst Tom Narayan thinks robotaxis will transform society and that 70% of Tesla’s value could come from its self-driving tech.

• Musk agrees — saying in an interview last Friday that Tesla’s value is tied to autonomous driving and projected a future where anyone can turn their vehicles into robotaxis.
• But Musk expected over 1M robotaxis by 2020 — a deadline that keeps getting pushed.

Until then, Tesla’s highly anticipated Cybertruck will be the next data point to watch – expected to arrive later this year.

One stat: Since 2019, Tesla’s autopilot mode has been involved in 736 crashes with 17 fatalities in the US.