Peloton’s terrible 2021 capped off with a fictional character dying

Last week, an airing of “Sex and the City” reboot (spoiler ALRT) sent Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) down 5% before recovering its losses yesterday.

What’s the big deal? Peloton, a pandemic winner of last year — turned loser this year — was the cause of death of fictional character Mr. Big from Sex and the City. In the first episode, Mr. Big was killed off after a 45-minute Peloton class.

A statement from a cardiologist from PTON’s health and wellness advisory council pointed out:

• Reason for death was from lifestyle choices (i.e. cocktails and cigars) — highlighted in a previous cardiac incident in a past season.
• Riding his Peloton may have delayed the cardiac event.

PTON hit back with a commercial featuring the actor of Mr. Big getting back up — “And just like that… he’s alive” — with a Ryan Reynolds voiceover, of course.

What’s to blame? Just another hit for PTON — down 72% this year. Growth slowed significantly in the past two quarters — dropping to just 54% and 6% — from a COVID peak of 232%.

In its recent earnings report, PTON reduced its sales forecast — having underestimated the impact of reopening.

PTON even reported a massive $376M net loss — from a $69.3M profit a year ago — from doubling its ad spending and higher shipping costs from supply chain impacts.

Looking forward: Investors are paying little attention to pandemic stocks. The Delta variant gave PTON a lift — but only temporarily as it kept moving down despite Omicron.

• The bull case: Peloton is starting to look attractive with a valuation of under 3x price-to-sales multiple — and growth will eventually move back to a normal pace.
• The bear case: Growth could remain low into 2022 as consumers opt to go out more — or hit the gym again — with supply chain issues persisting.