Moderna wants investors to look beyond COVID – The Average Joe

    Moderna wants investors to look beyond COVID

    Victor Lei — Head of Research

    January 19, 2023

    January 19, 2023

    We all know Moderna for one thing…

    But the company wants investors to look at it for more than just a piece of COVID vaccine.

    To most, COVID has become a thing of the past, and the World Health Organization has seen a sharp decrease in vaccine demand.

    It’s uncertain where demand will stabilize.

    Moderna is watching its sales evaporate:

    • Moderna’s sales went from near zero in 2021 to $18.4B in 2022.
    • This year, it forecasts its sales to be at least ~$5B (72% decline).

    $MRNA has risen over 60% since October from positive results on its:

    1/ Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine. Results from this week show an 83.7% effectiveness at preventing RSV in those aged 60+.

    • RSV leads to 60K-120K hospitalizations each year.
    • Analysts predict the RSV vaccine market could be worth $5B+.

    2/ Vaccine for deadly skin cancer Melanoma — which impacts over 100K people in the US yearly.

    • In December, Moderna released positive results, showing a 44% cut in recurrence or death.
    • The drug is being developed in partnership with Merck (NYSE:MRK) — expecting to move into Phase 3 clinical trials this year.

    What’s next? Moderna is using its cutting-edge Messenger RNA (mRNA) technique to develop other vaccines. They’ve got 48 programs in development, 36 ongoing clinical trials and four drugs in Phase 3 clinical trials — which $MRNA’s fortunes are heavily dependent on.

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