Moderna gets added to the S&P 500 — where does its stock go from here?

Vaccine maker Moderna officially joined the famous S&P 500 — the big leagues for big companies. But what comes next?

What’s the big deal? Last year, investors were unsure which vaccine would take the lead or how profitable they would be. After the US gave its emergency vaccine authorizations, Pfizer and Moderna became clear winners.

By mid-May, 96% of doses in the US were given by these companies. The future of these vaccines are becoming clearer with analysts expecting nearly $17.1b in sales this year for Moderna — falling to $16.8b in 2022 and $7.4b by 2023.

But don’t discount vaccine makers who could fill a global demand beyond the US.

• Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) — whose vaccine may be refrigerated longer is expected to exceed Moderna’s sales next year if approved.

What happens after a company joins the S&P 500? Don’t expect much. Companies that join the S&P 500 often move up between the announcement and the actual day they join, but tend to fall in the year afterward:

• Comparison: Since Tesla joined the S&P 500 in Dec, its stock has fallen 5% compared to the rest of the index being up 17%.
• In both Tesla and Moderna’s case, they joined the S&P 500 after a massive stock run — a potential red flag for investors.

Looking forward: Moderna has 10 vaccines for different treatments in the pipeline — but none are commercialized yet.

• According to a Bloomberg survey of 191 hedge funds, 73% expect Moderna to be flat or to fall 20% by the end of the year.

The company is running on a clock to prove it can produce more than just COVID vaccines — and live up to its $125b valuation.