How could Donald Trump’s 2024 presidency bid impact markets?

2023 isn’t even here yet, but we’re already setting ourselves up for an eventful 2024.

Donald Trump has announced that he’s seeking to run for President in 2024. But it’s uncertain whether the Republicans will nominate him.

It’s controversial, it’s spicy, and it might matter less than you think for the market.

But politics aren’t our forte, so let’s stick with investing.

Under Trump’s presidency, the market averaged a 11.8% annualized return — the fourth best of any president since 1929.

• While it’s certainly better than Biden’s (so far), it doesn’t paint the full picture.
• 2017-2021 was a different market environment with falling interest rates alongside major government stimulus.

It doesn’t matter who’s in office; markets may rise either way. Per ING’s Regional Head of Research, Padhraic Garvey — markets will be focused on the economy, not who wins (Fortune).

By the end of 2024 or early 2025, the Fed will have likely lowered interest rates several times to “resuscitate an economy.”

Anthony Scaramucci — Skybridge Capital’s founder, who previously served as Trump’s Communication Chief for ten days, also gave his thoughts on Reuters:

• The positive: “He’s the Holy Trinity of market lubrication – stimulus, through deficit spending, low interest rates – easy money – and a lack of regulation.”
• The negative: “He creates what markets absolutely hate: political instability.”

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Let’s focus on surviving 2022 first.