Ukraine-Russia tensions rise — invasion could be detrimental to markets – The Average Joe
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    Ukraine-Russia tensions rise — invasion could be detrimental to markets


    February 15, 2022


    One week it’s inflation, the next it’s a possible invasion that could set off a war. There’s always something to worry about when it comes to the market.

    What’s the big deal? Towards the end of 2021, Russia began staging troops alongside the Ukraine border — as global economies feared a potential invasion.

    Since covering the news last month, the situation has only gotten worse. The presence of Russian troops increased to 130K — up from 100K a few weeks ago.

    • CNN reported military hardware (i.e. tanks, fighting vehicles) moving closer to the border.
    • On Friday, the US warned against a Russian invasion as soon as this week.

    The White House is still unsure of Russia’s intentions — while Ukraine is insisting it is under “safe and reliable protection”.

    The impact: An invasion would devastate the global financial markets — with Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist (via BBG) saying it would “tip several economies into an outright recession”.

    Oil prices would be one of the few beneficiaries — jumping in recent weeks as border tensions grew.

    • The world will pay if an invasion disrupts oil supplies — given Russia exports ~12% of daily global crude oil trade.
    • But so will Russia — as nearly half its federal budget is linked to oil & gas.

    The energy (+26.5%) and financials (+2.5%) are the only S&P 500 sectors up this year — with oil prices up 19% in 2022 as Brent crude oil prices passed $94/barrel on Friday.

    $100 oil coming? At the risk of sounding like a broken alarm, oil supply remains low and demand strong, while oil companies are flushed in cash and prices risk going even higher.

    Investment banks called for $100 oil by September, but that timeline might be pushed up.

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