How Will Silicon Valley Bank’s Downfall Impact Markets? That Depends on Interest Rates…
Rising interest rates have broken the market.
The Fed wanted the economy to slow by raising interest rates. Now, it may have been given what it wanted — just not the way it wanted.
“We likely found the first major crack to the system” in terms of a Fed tightening cycle — Matt Miskin of John Hancock Investment Management (BBG).
This completely changed the course of interest rates.
- On Sunday, Goldman predicted that the Fed wouldn’t raise interest rates next week.
- And just a week ago, markets expected a 0.50 percentage point hike.
Goldman expects the Fed to continue raising rates in the following meeting (with three more to come). But other traders expect one or no more interest rate hikes this year.
Too many moving pieces to tell…
- The chief market strategist of B. Riley Wealth Management thinks there are “too many unknowns right now.”
- “Speculation about what the Fed’s going to do before we even see CPI is probably ill-founded.”
The deciding factor: February’s CPI report — which is being released today at 8:30 AM ET. Then we’ll find out for certain when the Fed meets next week.