What should crypto investors expect in the second half of 2022?
Don’t think, just do. That might work when you’re flying at the speed of sound, but if you take that advice when investing, you might not get very far.
The first half of 2022 was a complete disaster for crypto investors. Let’s see what’s in store for the rest of the year…
Words of wisdom from this crypto veteran….
Thomas Loverro is a General Partner at venture capital fund IVP. He was on Coinbase’s board of directors for many years and lived through several crypto cycles. This week, he shared his thoughts on when the crypto winter will end, and he’s got the experience to back them up:
- Crypto will go even lower in 2022, and 2023 will be mostly flat.
- Crypto conditions will start improving in the second half of 2023.
It takes ~12 months from peak to bottom (November), and the bottom will come when crypto isn’t making headlines anymore.
His advice: Have enough cash to get through the next 30-36 months and have faith without wavering to survive the winter.
He concludes: Crypto will come back bigger than ever.
But crypto still dominates headlines…
Just in a much more negative tone. Here’s what’s trending:
- Celebrities and influencers are being publicly roasted for crypto promotions — Matt Damon.
- Crypto platforms are blowing up left and right, with Three Arrows Capital still getting itself sorted out.
- FTX is buying BlockFi for $25M — 99% below its last private valuation — literally pennies on the dollar.
So based on Loverro’s bottom indicator, we’re still not there.
Even Cypherpunk Holdings (TSE:HODL) — a Canadian publicly traded investment fund — sold all its Bitcoin and Ethereum, according to an update this week.
They’re sitting “on the sidelines” to wait out the “volatility and contagion.”
Investors: Keeping the optimism alive
JPMorgan analysts think a large portion of crypto’s troubles are behind us (BBG).
- Crypto startup funding in the past two months has been healthy — although declining.
- Large and stronger players like FTX are stepping in to “help contain contagion.”
In a recent interview with Intelligencer, Galaxy Investment Group CEO Mike Novogratz said he expects the market to be 90-100% through forced liquidations. While selling will still occur, it’s the forced selling that sends fear into markets.
Has crypto bottomed? The general consensus still looks like a no.