Market outlook: Bitcoin heads in the wrong direction

If you’re losing money on Bitcoin, just know that you’re not alone. According to Glassnode, 40% of Bitcoin holders are losing money.

Bitcoin is down 55% from its all-time highs — which isn’t even close to its worst drawdowns. In 2015, 2018 and 2020 — $BTC fell between 77-86%. The good news: BTC made new highs each time.

Big BTC buyers are also underwater

MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) — the software company turned Bitcoin holding company — is now losing money on its $BTC. As of March 31, MicroStrategy paid an average price of $30,700.

Over time, MicroStrategy’s $BTC bets grew riskier — borrowing over $1.05B in debt to fund its BTC purchases.

• On its earnings call, MicroStrategy’s CFO said it would be subject to a margin call if $BTC’s price dropped below $21K.
• A margin call could force MicroStrategy to sell part of its $BTC — adding more downwards pressure. But CEO Michael Saylor said it could post “other collateral” to prevent a margin call.

According to Bloomberg, El Salvador’s bet on BTC is doing even worse — down 28% on its $BTC holdings since its first purchases last year.

Tesla, which purchased $1.5B in bitcoin for an estimated average price of ~$32,500 — would also be losing money on its holdings.

Are we at the bottom yet?

Not yet — according to analysts.

• A report by Huobi Research pointed at one metric — Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) — signaling more downside risk.
• Huobi estimates a bottom between $20-25K (Decrypt) — while one analyst at crypto exchange bitbank sees a more pessimistic $15K bottom.

The UST crisis could add even more selling pressure to Bitcoin. In the past few months, Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) bought over $3B in BTC — acting as a reserve to prevent UST from depegging. Unfortunately, the infrastructure wasn’t ready in time for the attack.

Earlier this week, LFG moved all its bitcoin away from its treasury wallet — with part of its holdings loaned to traders to try and stabilize UST. Per dYdX’s growth lead (TC), this could add “meaningful sell pressure on bitcoin and could drag down markets with it.”

Investors: When will crypto recover?

Look to the stock market.

• Per Kaiko’s research, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s correlation with the Nasdaq-100 hit a high of 0.8 and 0.9, respectively.
• A correlation of 1 means two assets move in the same direction by the same amount.

With crypto and equity markets moving in lockstep, the better question is, when will stocks rebound?