Crypto check-in: Bitcoin is consolidating, and that’s a positive sign

Crypto has had a rough start to the year.

It seemed like something was blowing up every other week. One week, Terra crashes and burns The next, Celsius goes bankrupt.

And if you’re wondering… yes, Terra’s founder, Do Kwon, is still on the run from Interpol and South Korean authorities.

Crypto’s been awfully quiet for the past five months

Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading in a consolidated range — hovering around $20K and $1.5K, respectively. Bitcoin’s volatility (a measure of price fluctuation) is at its lowest in two years.

Here’s what Luno’s head of international Vijay Ayyar has to say (CNBC):

• “Bitcoin being stuck in such a range does make it boring, but this is also when retail loses interest and smart money starts to accumulate.”
• He sees signs of an accumulation phase — where institutional investors begin to place bets.

In a note last week, Goldman said that in 2018 (the last crypto winter), prices were also steady for a while before rising.

Crypto did have some wins in recent months:

• BlackRock announced a partnership with Coinbase to offer crypto to its clients.
• The UK also has a new Prime Minister who is seen to be pro-crypto and has previously outlined plans to turn the UK into a crypto hub.
• Ethereum has undergone its significant proof-of-stake upgrade with no major breaking news.

Still, prices have barely budged — except for Dogecoin ($DOGE), which is up 75% in the past week, thanks to Elon Musk buying Twitter.

Unlike the last crypto winter, the attitude toward crypto today is much more optimistic. A lot less “bitcoin is dead” and more “how can crypto benefit the world?”

• In 2017, bitcoin was declared dead 124 times. This year, only 24 times (so far).
• Major companies are still launching crypto products — with BlackRock “seeing substantial interest” from institutional clients (FT).

Are we near the end of the bear market? Just ask the Fed. But don’t expect an answer. Some analysts anticipate the start of a bull market in the second quarter of 2023 — near the predicted time that the Fed will pause rate hikes.

On watch: Coinbase reports earnings today after market close.