Nobody Likes a Sore Loser

On Sept 23, 2020, when Trump was asked whether he would commit to a peaceful transition of power, he refused to answer. So what does this mean? Well, if Trump loses, he could possibly challenge the results… This would bring the final decision to the Supreme Court.

• History has shown us that a delay in election results negatively impacts stock markets. This time might not be so different…

How did we get here? With COVID still upon us, the US has turned to voting by mail for the US 2020 presidential elections. At the start of September, Trump argued that voting by mail will lead to voter fraud and skew the results.

The Imperfect Storm

Don’t wake me up when September ends. The market volatility will be far from over — try December. The S&P 500 is down over 8% from their Sept. 2 peak and stock markets are whipsawing up and down. Sorry to break it to you, but this may only be the beginning.

No Time To Panic

Tech stocks crashing? Stop panicking and pull yourself together. On Sep. 3 and 4, the stock market saw its biggest drop since March with the S&P 500 falling over 4%. The main culprit, tech stocks. The Nasdaq Composite, a major index representing tech stocks, dropped close to 10% over the 2 days while other sectors saw losses of 0-3%.

The Dollar Is Falling. The Dollar Is Falling

The US dollar is falling but don’t let chicken little scare you.

The U.S Dollar Index ($USDX), an index that measures the value of the USD compared to foreign currencies, fell over 9% since March 2020. Global investors have been selling the US currency over fears of poor economic conditions and rising inflation in the US.

Pick Your Poison, Trump or Biden?

US presidential elections are slated for November and according to Trump, “the stock market will drop down to nothing” if he isn’t re-elected. Reality check, If a global pandemic couldn’t make this happen, it’s highly unlikely that an election will send the stock markets plummeting to zero.

A July poll by WSJ/NBC shows 51% of respondents voting for Biden and 40% for Trump. General consensus shows a Biden victory would negatively impact stock markets, however, JP Morgan believes a Biden victory would result in a slight positive for the economy.

Are We There Yet?

We’re close… ish… not really. Several COVID vaccine developers are beginning the last testing phase before being reviewed for final approval. This phase could last anywhere between 3-6 months. 

• 160 vaccines are in development and 26 are in the human testing phase.
• AstraZeneca ($AZN) has already begun phase 3 and Moderna ($MRNA) and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) is expected to begin phase 3 at the end of July.